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Prediction for CME (2026-08-16T19:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-08-16T19:48Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/48119/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the W in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2026-08-16T20:03Z. It is also seen to the W in SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 and to the NE in STEREO A COR2. The majority of this CME was missed in real time by SOHO LASCO C3 due to a data gap between downlinks. This CME is associated with a C8.2 class flare from AR 14506 (N10W42) that peaked at 2026-08-16T19:28Z. The flare is best seen in SDO AIA 131.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-08-20T14:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 360
Longitude (deg): 43 W
Latitude (deg): 26 N
Half-angular width (deg): 36

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: SW

Lead Time: 80.75 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2026-08-17T05:15Z

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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